Severe thunderstorms are likely this evening across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. As we head toward late evening and midnight, the severe thunderstorms may hold together and move into the northwest coastal areas of Lower Michigan.
Here are the outlines from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for specific types of severe weather. The “enhanced risk” area of severe weather is over the central U.P. and is a level three risk out of five levels.
The tornado risk forecast shows a five percent risk of a tornado all the way into northwest Lower Michigan. The main risk of tornadoes is in Wisconsin into the central U.P. The central U.P. could even have a strong tornado, ranked as an EF2 or stronger.
Now here is the radar forecast through tonight. It gives you a great feel for the transition from supercell thunderstorms to a line of thunderstorms. The supercells are individual thunderstorms that produce tornadoes and large hail. The squall-line of storms is more likely to product straight-line winds.
From 6 p.m. to 8 p.m., the severe storms should be confined to the western third of the U.P., including Ironwood, Iron River and the Keweenaw Peninsula. Between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. the severe storms will be combining to form a solid line of storms across the central U.P. and approaching the Leelanau County coastline. The line of storms will move through Petoskey, Charlevoix, Traverse City and Benzie County between 10 p.m. and midnight. Between midnight and 4 a.m. the storms will start to weaken and move toward the Saginaw Valley area.
As the storms pass through your town, make sure to move to an interior part of your home. Please like the MLive.com Facebook page to watch any continuous live severe weather updates.